INTERACTIVE DRAW ANALYSIS

Installation

Download the draw file from the www.pjmracing.com website.
Note the folder where this file is located, and in Windows
Explorer double-click on the file.  The package will export
to the c:\pmay\draw folder, please do not change this 
destination folder. You may need to click on an UnZip button.
The installation is now complete.


Running The Program

Locate the draw.exe file in the c:\pmay\draw folder.  
Double-click to run the program.  To set up a short-cut on
your desktop, right-click on the file and choose "send to",
then choose DeskTop.


Using the Program

The Draw program allows the user to analyse the draw effect
at all British courses. Simply select a course and click Analyse.
The details for this course will be output in the two yellow boxes,
as well as a brief course summary.  The left-hand yellow box
shows the performance of horses in stall number order.  These details
include number of winners from each stall, number of runners, the
expected number of winners (assuming no draw bias) and the total
return calculated to a level £1 staked at SP.  If a bias exists the
number of winners will exceed the expected number.  The right-hand
yellow box shows the same information but listed from the highest stall
number down to the lowest, this will indicate if the high drawn
horses are favoured (i.e. the highest stall (H-0), or the second 
highest (H-1) etc).  For information on the Distance Beaten column
please see the Distance Beaten section given below.

Year and Going Analysis
Once an Analysis has been performed the performance of the lowest
four stalls and the highest four stalls can be viewed by going and
year by clicking on the relevant "Analysis by Year and Going" buttons.

Modifying the Analysis
Other analyses are possible by changing the Stalls Position, Going, 
and Year options. For instance the stalls can be changed to Low.  In
this case only races where the lowest stall was placed against the 
running rail are included in the analysis. Also a maximum price can
be set to restrict the performances analysed to just those where the
horse started at or below this starting price limit.

Distance Beaten
If a stall position of High or Low has been selected the distance beaten
column will have figures.  These are measures of the average distance
the horses in each stall finished in front, or behind the horses in the
highest or lowest stall.  A negative figures indicates the horses, on 
average, finished behind the horse in this base stall.  By clicking on
the graph button this information will be displayed graphically so that
the degree to which the draw effects the outcome of the race can be 
immediately seen.

Other Settings
Click setting and a second form will be displayed.  This can be used to 
omit specific horses such as those beaten by more than a specified 
distance from the Average Distance calculation.  They will still be included
in the profit/loss data.  Also a minimum race size can be specified.  Setting
this at 16 will result in the Analyser ignoring all races with less than 16
runners from all calculations, including profit/loss and average distance 
beaten.

Example
Run the program.
Select the Beverley 5F course.
Select High Stall Position.
Click the Analysis button.
Click the Graph button to see the disadvantage to the lower draw horses.

Saving Files
Once a track has been analysed, the details can be saved.  Simply click
File then AddToFile.  The data will be saved to the c:\pmay\draw\summ.doc 
file, this can be opened in WORD for future analysis.  Repeating this
operation will add more information to the file, it will not be 
overwritten. To empty this file click on ClearFile.  Also clicking
QuickView will allow you to inspect this file without leaving the
Draw Analyser.

Analyse All
This option allows the user to analyse all courses with the results output
to a word file.  Simply set the going, year and stalls position and click
AnalyseAll.  A file will then be created with all courses analysed which
can then be formatted and printed in WORD or any other text editor or
viewed using QuickView.

Future Form
Once you have identified a track bias it is useful to check the performance
of the horses that ran in similar races.  To do this simply click FutureForm.
A new window will open which is essentially divided into two parts.  Firstly
it is necessary to specify the race conditions for the draw bias race, to
select the relavant course and stall position and adjust the going to the 
required range. Once complete click Analyse and the output windows will fill
with data.  This information relates to the performances of all the horses
on their next outing after running in the draw bias races you specified. So
it is possible to see how well low drawn horses do next time after running in
a race with a significant high draw bias. Other options include setting the 
maximum distance these horses are allowed to be beaten in the draw bias race
(which is also referred to as the "Previous Race"), so limit the number of 
runners in this race or to stipulate the draw position of the winner of this
race, whether that is high low or anywhere.  The "Next Race" conditions can
also be restricted.  You may want to only consider horses running next in
handicaps or within a set number of days since their last run, this is simple
to do.  The aim of this analysis is to identify conditions under which horses
are worth following based on thier performances on draw bias courses.


Other Factors
The following information relates to the methods employed by the program and
should be viewed as background information.  Firstly, the stalls position is
not applied to fields with 18 or more runners.  In these cases all races are
included in the analysis (High, Low or Centre).  Secondly, where horses have
been withdrawn from a race the stalls are compacted so as not to leave and
empty berth.  This has been accounted for by the program, though the original 
stall positions are still used in the Future Form section.  Thirdly, the distance
beaten figures only apply to races where the "base" horse finished within 25 lengths
of the winner. Finally, in Future Form a low drawn horse needs to be in the lowest
34% of stalls, a high drawn runner in the top 34%.

Problems

If you experience any problems using the program contact PJM Publications
via the www.pjmracing.com website.